Why has Aramco canceled oil cargoes to European buyers?
Saudi Aramco informed at least three European refining companies that cargoes planned for the final ten days of September have been canceled or shifted. Two additional companies expect similar notices in the coming days. The notifications began before the pipeline attack but worsened afterward. Aramco has not issued a public statement on the scale of the cancellations. According to three sources speaking to Reuters, the largest crude exporter in the world closed the East-West Pipeline after an attack last week and faces ongoing problems from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea plus continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. All cargoes from Saudi Arabia scheduled to load in the last ten days of September are at risk of cancellation. Stocks of Saudi crude equivalent to roughly five days of exports remain at Yanbu port on the Red Sea. This information has not been directly confirmed and Aramco declined to comment. The cancellations reflect the combined pressure of the pipeline closure and earlier Red Sea shipping problems that already delayed cargoes from Sidi Kerir by about two weeks. Market participants note that the kingdom may need to draw on export-designated inventories while repairs proceed, although no official confirmation of inventory drawdowns has been provided.
How extensive is the damage to the East-West Pipeline?
Satellite images show three pumping stations along the East-West Pipeline suffered major damage, far beyond initial assessments. One station appears to have been hit by a large fire. Repairs are expected to take several weeks. The pipeline carries crude from fields near the Persian Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast for export. Satellite photos revealed extensive damage to the strategic East-West crude pipeline after the recent attacks. Saudi authorities have not disclosed the full extent of the damage on the pipeline leading to the Red Sea. Reports indicate the kingdom may have to draw on export-designated oil inventories because one of its main export routes is out of action. The prolonged shutdown could affect up to 4 percent of global oil supplies. Satellite images showed a pumping station that appears to have suffered a large fire and serious damage. It is not a single strike on the pipeline but three confirmed by satellite photos and possibly more. The authorities are working on repairs, yet the extent of the damage suggests the shutdown will persist beyond initial expectations and continue to constrain export volumes through the affected route.
What routes are affected by the pipeline shutdown?
Crude normally moves from Yanbu to Ain Sukhna in Egypt, then through the Sumed pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. Exports from Sidi Kerir averaged 1.95 million barrels per day in early September. No Saudi crude cargoes have left Yanbu since 11 September. Stocks equivalent to roughly five days of exports remain at the port. The pipeline normally carries crude from fields near the Persian Gulf to Yanbu for export to Ain Sukhna before the crude is moved through the 2.5 million barrels per day Sumed pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast. Saudi exports from Sidi Kerir ran around 1.95 million barrels per day in the first two weeks of September while arrivals at Ain Sukhna ran around 1.40 million barrels per day according to the Vortexa trading and analysis platform. Since 11 September no Saudi crude cargo has departed from Yanbu. The figures may not include tankers that switched off AIS transponders for security reasons. The absence of departures from Yanbu directly limits volumes reaching the Mediterranean export terminal and onward destinations in Europe.
Which earlier disruptions contributed to the current delays?
Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea had already caused two-week delays for cargoes from Sidi Kerir in early September. The pipeline damage has compounded those problems. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also faces continued uncertainty. Aramco began notifying some European customers last week, before the pipeline attack, that exports from Sidi Kerir in early September had been delayed by about two weeks. Sources at the time attributed this to Ansar Allah fighter attacks on Saudi ships in the Red Sea. This means the after-effects of the pipeline strikes have not yet fully played out. Damage to the East-West Pipeline has likely worsened these delays. The sequence shows that Red Sea risks were already affecting schedules when the pipeline attack added a further constraint on the main route supplying the Yanbu terminal.
What volume of global supply could be at risk?
The East-West Pipeline represents a key export route. Its prolonged closure could affect up to 4 percent of global oil supplies. Buyers and traders expect Aramco may draw down export-designated inventories to meet some commitments while repairs continue. The East-West Pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels per day and remains closed since the 10 September attack. The cancellations suggest a prolonged shutdown. The pipeline carries crude destined for the Red Sea and onward export routes. Market participants view the combination of the pipeline outage and Red Sea shipping risks as creating sustained pressure on available export volumes from Saudi Arabia, with the possibility that inventories will be used to bridge the gap until operations resume.
Frequently asked questions
Which European companies have been notified?
At least three European refiners have received cancellation or postponement notices. Two more expect updates shortly. Specific company names have not been disclosed. Information also comes from Argus Media, a leading provider of market data and analysis for global energy and commodity markets.
When did the pipeline attacks occur?
The confirmed attacks took place on 10 September. The pipeline has remained closed since that date.
Has Aramco confirmed the extent of the damage?
Aramco has not commented publicly. Satellite imagery analyzed by market sources indicates damage to multiple pumping stations. Saudi authorities are working to repair the affected facilities but restoration may take several weeks.
Could other export routes compensate?
Alternative routes face their own constraints from Red Sea shipping risks. No immediate replacement capacity has been identified.
How long might repairs take?
Official estimates point to several weeks before full operations resume.
