Why has the SPD overtaken the AfD in the latest poll?
The poll conducted for ZDF places the SPD of state premier Manuela Schwesig at 37 percent, up three points from the previous week. The AfD, whose candidate for premier is Leif-Erik Holm, stands at 36 percent after losing one point. The two parties are now separated by a single percentage point, reversing an earlier lead held by the AfD. The source states that the SPD had for a long time trailed the AfD. The three-point gain for the SPD and the one-point loss for the AfD produced the narrow reversal in the final week before the vote. No other party recorded a movement larger than one point in the same period. The shift occurred in the final week of the campaign. The SPD had trailed the AfD in earlier surveys but recorded the largest week-on-week gain among all parties tracked. The AfD recorded the only other notable movement, a one-point decline. The source provides no further breakdown of the reasons behind the movement, leaving open whether the change reflects campaign events or sampling variation within the margin of error.
The source notes the poll was commissioned by ZDF and published on Thursday 17 September. It gives the SPD a three-point increase and the AfD a one-point decrease, producing the first lead for the centre-left party in recent tracking. The article includes a Reuters photograph of both Manuela Schwesig and Leif-Erik Holm. Because the source supplies no additional data on voter motivations or campaign events, it is not possible to determine whether the movement stems from specific news or simply statistical fluctuation inside the stated margin of error.
How do smaller parties stand relative to the 5 percent threshold?
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of federal chancellor Friedrich Merz is at 6 percent after dropping one point. This places the party one point above the 5 percent hurdle required for seats in the state parliament. Die Linke, the junior partner in the current state government, is at 9 percent after losing one point. The Greens remain unchanged at 5 percent. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) stands at 4 percent and would miss the threshold under these figures. The source notes that the CDU sits dangerously close to the 5 percent line needed to elect deputies. Four parties therefore sit at or below the 5 percent line. Any further movement in the final days could determine whether the CDU, Greens or BSW enter the next parliament.
What share of voters remain undecided?
The survey found that 79 percent of respondents had already decided which party they would support. The remaining 21 percent described themselves as still undecided. With the election only four days away, this group represents a sizable pool of potential late shifts. The source gives no demographic or geographic breakdown of the undecided share. Their distribution will be known only after the count on 20 September.
What does the poll say about possible government formations?
The poll numbers alone do not produce a majority for any single party. The SPD at 37 percent would need at least one partner to form a government. Die Linke at 9 percent remains the most likely coalition partner based on current arithmetic, though the Greens at 5 percent could also be considered in some combinations. The AfD at 36 percent would face the same arithmetic challenge. The source contains no statements from other parties about willingness to govern with the AfD. The CDU at 6 percent would also require partners, but its narrow margin above the threshold leaves limited room for manoeuvre.
How was the poll conducted and what are its limitations?
The survey was carried out for ZDF among 1,395 registered voters in Mecklenburg-Pomerania between 14 and 17 September. The stated margin of error ranges between plus or minus 2 percent and plus or minus 3 percent. Fieldwork ended on the Thursday before the Sunday election. Polling in the final week of a campaign can be sensitive to late events and turnout patterns. The 21 percent undecided share adds further uncertainty to any projection based on these figures.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Mecklenburg-Pomerania state election?
The election takes place on Sunday, 20 September 2026.
Who leads the SPD ticket?
Manuela Schwesig, the current state premier, is the SPD candidate for premier.
Who leads the AfD ticket?
Leif-Erik Holm is the AfD candidate for premier.
What is the current standing of the CDU?
The CDU is at 6 percent, one point above the 5 percent threshold for entering parliament.
How many voters are still undecided?
Twenty-one percent of respondents said they had not yet decided how they would vote.
