Survey findings reveal widespread pessimism
Researchers at the European Council on Foreign Relations interviewed 5,800 people across France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the United Kingdom. They also examined political and media debate in 15 countries. The results show 68 percent of respondents described Europe in terms of general deterioration or loss of normality. Only 12 percent viewed the current period as one of awakening and renewal. Respondents identified the main challenges facing Europe as war (43 percent), economic pressures (33 percent) and the need for greater international autonomy (29 percent). Yet 74 percent said the EU is not addressing these issues effectively, and 56 percent believed Europe’s future is at risk. The study found that many citizens recognise the scale of these problems but see little evidence that institutions are responding with concrete steps. This widespread pessimism creates fertile ground for far-right narratives that portray the continent as being in irreversible decline. One young Polish respondent born in the 2000s stated plainly that the EU discusses issues at length but produces few concrete actions, a sentiment echoed by 32 percent of all participants who cited the EU’s slowness as a core problem.
Strong support for integration persists
Despite the pessimism, 73 percent of those surveyed expressed a clear vision for Europe centred on political unity (35 percent), peace and security (28 percent) or prosperity (19 percent). Only 13 percent favoured less Europe or the dissolution of the EU. Pawel Zerka, senior fellow at the ECFR and lead author of the study, noted that citizens have not abandoned the goal of a stronger Europe; they simply no longer believe it is achievable. This creates what he called a “void of imagination”: people can picture the Europe they want but struggle to see a credible path from today’s reality to that destination. Zerka stressed that these are questions of policy substance rather than communication style. The gap between aspiration and perceived feasibility leaves many feeling that ambitious goals remain out of reach without visible proof that institutions can move from words to action. A German respondent captured the tension by expressing relief at living in Europe because no other region offers comparable safety, freedom and democracy, yet still judged that the desired future of a free, democratic, sustainable, less indebted, more left-leaning and peaceful Europe in twenty years was unlikely to materialise.
Four voter categories
The study divided respondents into four groups. The “Positive” group, 19 percent, sees current crises as opportunities for deeper integration. The “Negative” group, 39 percent, believes Europe’s best days are over; nearly half of citizens in France, Germany and Italy, and almost all far-right voters in parties such as Germany’s AfD, France’s RN, the Netherlands’ PVV and Reform UK, fall into this category, with 83 percent speaking of loss and decline. The “Disconnected,” 12 percent, show little interest in European affairs. The “Uncertain,” 31 percent, retain pro-European values but question the EU’s capacity to act decisively, protect citizens or defend its values. These segments illustrate how support for the European project is not uniform and how different groups respond to the same challenges with sharply contrasting levels of confidence. The “Negative” category in particular concentrates voters who already back far-right parties, turning the trust deficit into a direct political resource for those narratives.
Perception of institutional weakness
Thirty-two percent of respondents across the six countries cited the EU’s slowness as a core problem. One young Polish participant summarised the view: the EU discusses issues at length but produces few concrete actions. Thirty percent also pointed to the EU’s inability to hold its ground against powerful external actors, citing recent tariff concessions to the United States as an example. A German respondent expressed relief at living in Europe because no other region offers comparable safety, freedom and democracy, yet still criticised the failure to tackle the climate crisis and the rise of far-right parties effectively. The same respondent wanted Europe in twenty years to be free, democratic, sustainable, less indebted, more left-leaning politically and peaceful, but judged that outcome unlikely. Such accounts reveal a consistent pattern: citizens value the European framework yet see institutional inertia as the main obstacle to progress on the issues they care about most. The concessions on tariffs were repeatedly described as a humiliating symbol of diminished leverage.
Policy implications for EU leaders
Zerka argued that the “Uncertain” voters represent the decisive group. Leaders who focus only on committed supporters or attempt to appease critics risk losing this segment. To regain trust, the EU must demonstrate that collective action can resolve concrete domestic problems such as energy security, defence, climate change and the cost-of-living crisis. The study recommends fewer ambitious promises and more visible delivery ahead of the European Commission president’s annual State of the Union address. One week before Ursula von der Leyen is due to deliver that speech in Brussels, the findings suggest the Union needs fewer grand pledges and more proof of progress on the ground. Without tangible results that address daily concerns, the trust deficit is likely to persist and continue to benefit those who argue that the European project has entered a phase of permanent decline. The author emphasised that the problem is not a lack of ambition among citizens but the absence of credible steps that would turn aspirations into reality.
Frequently asked questions
What does the ECFR study measure?
It measures public attitudes toward European integration through 5,800 interviews in six countries and analysis of political and media debate in 15 countries.
Why do many Europeans doubt the EU’s effectiveness?
Seventy-four percent of respondents said the EU is not addressing major challenges such as war, economic pressure and strategic autonomy effectively.
Which voter group is most important for the EU’s future?
The “Uncertain” group, 31 percent of respondents, still supports European values but questions the EU’s ability to deliver; winning their confidence is seen as decisive.
How many people see Europe in decline?
Sixty-eight percent described Europe in terms of deterioration or loss of normality, while 12 percent saw renewal.
Do most citizens want less Europe?
No. Only 13 percent favour reduced integration or dissolution of the EU; 73 percent retain a positive vision of unity, security or prosperity.
